Inside the Pentagon’s Turbulent Year: What’s True About the “Betting Pools” on Pete Hegseth — and What Isn’t
Short answer: We found no solid proof that Pentagon staff are running secret betting pools on Secretary Pete Hegseth’s ouster. But the rest of the story? The turmoil is real: a leak scandal, lethal boat strikes, unusual firings, tighter press rules, and even a beard crackdown. And yes, outside markets are betting on his future.
If you’re here for the intrigue, it’s there—just not always where the rumor mill says it is.
The video no one outside Congress can see The most consequential—and verifiable—revelation isn’t about office pools. It’s about a video: the full, unedited footage of an alleged “double strike” on survivors of a U.S. attack on a suspected drug‑smuggling boat. Pete Hegseth has publicly refused to release it, citing national security, though congressional committees can view it. That decision, after a tense, closed-door Senate briefing, is fueling oversight on Capitol Hill and intensifying doubts inside the Pentagon. Source: CBS News reporting on Hegseth’s statement after the briefing (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-says-he-wont-release-video-of-sept-2-double-tap-u-s-strike-that-killed-2-survivors/)
What we verified, what needs context, and what’s unproven
Verified
- “Signal‑gate” is real: Senior officials, including Hegseth, discussed pending strikes in a Signal chat that accidentally included a journalist. The White House confirmed the chat; an Inspector General review is underway. Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/03/24/trump-leak-signal-jeffrey-goldberg-atlantic/)
- Lethal strikes on drug boats happened, and the alleged “double‑tap” is under intense scrutiny: The Washington Post reported Hegseth gave a spoken order to “kill everybody,” leading to a second strike on survivors. The Pentagon disputes that version; AP, Reuters, and others have documented the strike campaign. Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/11/30/trump-hegseth-caribbean-strikes-kill-order/)
- The full video isn’t public: Hegseth says the unedited footage won’t be released, though committees can view it. CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-says-he-wont-release-video-of-sept-2-double-tap-u-s-strike-that-killed-2-survivors/)
- Oversight is underway: Senate Armed Services leaders from both parties pledged “vigorous oversight.” Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/11/29/hegseth-caribbean-strikes-kill-order-reaction/)
- One targeted boat was assessed bound for Europe, not the U.S.: At least in an Oct. 16 case. Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/27/us-drug-strike-survivors/)
- Unusual personnel churn is documented: Multiple senior leaders were removed, and a rare mass gathering of generals/admirals raised eyebrows inside DoD. Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/latest-purge-hegseth-removes-head-pentagon-intelligence-agency-other-senior-2025-08-22/)
- Press rules have tightened, with a “new media” tilt: Mainstream outlets balked at signing new pledges; right‑leaning and alternative outlets got credentials. Press‑freedom groups criticized the changes. The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/20/pentagon-journalists-restrictions-pledge)
- Grooming standards crackdown: Hegseth ordered a review; services tightened rules, including beard waivers. Army Times (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-military/2025/03/13/hegseth-orders-review-of-military-grooming-and-fitness-standards/)
- Betting markets exist outside government: Kalshi hosted “next cabinet member out” contracts; Hegseth’s odds rose after the strike controversy. Prices change constantly. QuiverQuant tracking (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Markets%2Bbet%2Bon%2Bwhether%2BPete%2BHegseth%2Bwill%2Bbe%2Bthe%2Bfirst%2Bperson%2Bto%2Bleave%2Bthe%2BTrump%2BCabinet)
- Trump’s stance: The President publicly praised Hegseth in December 2025 and dismissed talk of a rift. CNN transcript (https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/arena/date/2025-12-10/segment/01)
- Timing checks out: Hegseth’s one‑year mark is Jan. 25, 2026; 18 months is late July 2026. Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Hegseth)
Needs context or correction
- “Secretary of War” title: This is branding, not a legal rename. In Sept. 2025, an executive order allowed “Secretary of War/Department of War” as secondary titles in communications. The statutory name remains Department of Defense unless Congress changes it. White House EO (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restoring-the-united-states-department-of-war/)
- “Top contender” in prediction markets: Hegseth’s odds did spike around the strike reporting, but rankings fluctuate day to day.
Unproven or unsupported
- Secret Pentagon “betting pools” on Hegseth’s ouster: We found no independent confirmation by major outlets (AP, Reuters, WaPo, NBC, CBS, Politico). The Daily Mail claim couldn’t be verified; its site blocked our crawler, and we couldn’t locate corroboration elsewhere. Treat this as unsubstantiated.
- Claim that Hegseth accused members of his own party of treason: We found Trump publicly calling Democrats “traitors” and accusing them of “seditious” behavior, and Hegseth using “seditious” language about Democrats. But no reliable reporting that Hegseth accused Republicans of treason. Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/11/20/trump-democrats-seditious-behavior/)
A year in the bunker: how the story really unfolded
- The leak that lit the fuse: “Signal‑gate” wasn’t just sloppy comms; it exposed real-time debate over strikes to an unintended outsider. That forced an IG review and rattled trust at the top. Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/03/24/trump-leak-signal-jeffrey-goldberg-atlantic/)
- The strikes that won’t stop making news: Since September 2025, U.S. forces have hit dozens of drug boats. Journalists unearthed allegations of a second strike killing survivors after an initial hit—an account the Pentagon disputes. The government’s refusal to release the whole video has become the central, unresolved question.
- The palace‑intrigue part is real, minus the “Saddam” theatrics: Firings of senior leaders, a rare mass meeting of flag officers, and sudden reshuffles created a climate many insiders describe as paranoid—even if “Game of Thrones” is a metaphor, not a finding. Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/latest-purge-hegseth-removes-head-pentagon-intelligence-agency-other-senior-2025-08-22/)
- A new press order: Reporters faced new pledges limiting even unclassified disclosures; legacy outlets walked, and a different press corps walked in. The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/20/pentagon-journalists-restrictions-pledge)
- The culture war, squared away: Hegseth’s grooming and fitness review—and the beard‑waiver squeeze—are policy choices with symbolic weight. Critics call them distractions; supporters call them standards. Both things can be true at once. Army Times (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-military/2025/03/13/hegseth-orders-review-of-military-grooming-and-fitness-standards/)
Why the “betting pools” rumor spread
- There are real, public markets betting on Cabinet exits. So the idea of shadow pools inside the building felt plausible.
- The atmosphere is tense, with firings and press blackouts. In that context, a “fantasy‑football‑style” game reads like gallows humor.
- But stories need receipts. And here, none have surfaced from reputable, independent outlets.
Key corrections and takeaways
- Bold correction: “Secretary of War” is a secondary title permitted by executive order; the legal name is still Department of Defense. White House EO (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restoring-the-united-states-department-of-war/)
- Bold finding: The Pentagon refuses to release the full “double‑strike” video publicly, a choice driving bipartisan oversight. CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-says-he-wont-release-video-of-sept-2-double-tap-u-s-strike-that-killed-2-survivors/)
- Bold finding: Unusual leadership churn and tightened media controls are documented, not rumor. Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/latest-purge-hegseth-removes-head-pentagon-intelligence-agency-other-senior-2025-08-22/) | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/20/pentagon-journalists-restrictions-pledge)
- Bold caveat: Clandestine Pentagon betting pools remain unverified. Treat with caution.
What remains uncertain
- Whether the full, unedited footage would exonerate or implicate decision‑makers in the alleged second strike.
- How far oversight will go: Will Congress subpoena the video for broader review? Will the IG report be public?
- The effect of external betting markets on political pressure, if any.
How we checked
- We cross‑referenced the original claims against reporting from the Washington Post, Reuters, AP, CBS, the Guardian, Army Times, CNN transcripts, and an official White House executive order. We searched for independent confirmation of alleged internal betting pools and found none from mainstream U.S. outlets. We also reviewed third‑party tracking of Kalshi prediction markets.
What to watch next
- The one‑year mark on Jan. 25, 2026—a symbolic test for both Hegseth and his critics.
- Any release (even to committees) of fuller footage or transcripts relating to the alleged second strike.
- Upcoming oversight moves by the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Bottom line The underground betting‑pool story is a ghost—good gossip without proof. The power struggle is not. Hegseth’s first year is marked by a confirmed leak scandal, a deadly and controversial maritime campaign, aggressive personnel and media moves, and a President who, so far, is standing by him. In other words: no office pools required to see the stakes.