Short answer, upfront

Yes – Moscow is working hard to damage Ursula von der Leyen’s reputation ahead of the 2025 EU power struggle. But there is no verified proof that Viktor Orbán is masterminding a joint coup with Vladimir Putin. What we do have is a mosaic of Russian-run troll farms, secret Baku back-channels, and German politicians caught in the grey zone between naïveté and Kremlin leverage. Now, let’s unpack the evidence—and the hype.

1. The headline myth: “Two lone fact-checkers cracked the plot”

The viral BILDplus teaser claimed “two fact-checkers analysed thousands of Russian posts.”
Reality check:

• Debunk.org in Vilnius mobilised a full research team, combing through 284 Kremlin-friendly articles that promoted a no-confidence vote against von der Leyen (Spiegel).
• Berlin think-tank CeMAS used network forensics to trace millions of views and a bot swarm ahead of Germany’s 2025 elections (Reuters).

In short, it took labs, coders and months of data-scraping, not two lone warriors.

2. What Russia is actually doing

A. Messaging playbook

Analysts from Debunk, CeMAS and ISD all spotted the same talking points:

1. “Von der Leyen equals corruption.”
2. “The EU is punishing its own people, not Russia.”
3. “Only her resignation can save Europe.”

B. Reach and coordination

• 2.8 million+ views via Telegram channels seeded with the above narratives.
• A botnet able to activate “thousands of accounts within hours.”

These numbers are documented; the motive—“Putin’s personal revenge”—remains educated speculation.

3. The Orban angle: fact versus fiction

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán does block EU sanctions and budgets, sometimes handing Moscow a win. Yet:

• No dossier, leak or wiretap places Orbán in a covert plan to remove von der Leyen.
• EU diplomats say Budapest’s obstruction is “trans­actional, not Russian-directed.”
• Hungary still voted for several Russia-critical measures when domestic concessions were negotiated.

Verdict: Orbán is an opportunist, not a proven Kremlin sleeper.

4. The German connection: whispers in Baku

April 2025, luxury hotel, Baku. Among the guests:

• SPD veteran Ralf Stegner
• Former CDU Kanzleramtschef Ronald Pofalla
• Gazprom board chair Viktor Subkow

The politicians confirm being there—“private talks,” they say. What’s missing? A paper trail linking the meeting to disinfo operations. Still, optics matter: while von der Leyen battles Russian propaganda, German lawmakers chat with Putin insiders.

Money on the table?

• Czech intel busted the “Voice of Europe” network in 2024 for paying EU politicians (BBC).
• AfD MEP Petr Bystron is now under criminal investigation for alleged cash and crypto kickbacks (Euronews).

No court verdict yet, but investigators say the money trail leads to Moscow-linked middlemen.

5. What remains unproven

• Personal “revenge” order by Putin: plausible narrative, no leaked memo.
• Direct Orbán–Putin coordination to topple von der Leyen: zero hard evidence.
• German politicians knowingly helping the Kremlin: inquiries ongoing; presumption of innocence holds.

6. How we verified all this

1. Cross-checked BILD claims against primary research from Debunk.org, CeMAS, ISD.
2. Matched names and dates of Baku meeting with company registries and flight data.
3. Consulted open-source investigations on Voice of Europe payment flows.
4. Contacted Stegner’s and Pofalla’s offices (no additional comment).
5. Reviewed legal filings in Bystron case.

Transparency note: new indictments or leaks could change this picture; we will update.

7. Why it matters

Disinformation rarely arrives with a smoking gun. It drips: bots today, “private chats” tomorrow, an untraceable crypto transfer next week. By the time the story is debunked, the political damage is done—especially in a tight EU leadership vote.

Key takeaways

• Russian influence campaign? Documented.
• Orbán-Putin coup plot? Not proven.
• German enablers? Under investigation, not convicted.
• Original claim of “two fact-checkers”? Dramatically understated—dozens of analysts did the work.

The bottom line

Putin doesn’t need a cinematic takedown of Ursula von der Leyen; a steady erosion of trust will do. The real threat is less a single coup than a thousand digital cuts, amplified by anyone—witting or not—who repeats half-checked headlines. Before sharing the next explosive claim, ask: who benefits?