Inside Musk’s Bastrop Reunion: The 12‑Year Prophecy—and What the Hype Gets Wrong

Yes, the secret reunion happened—and Elon Musk did predict a “great 12‑year span” of Trump followed by two J.D. Vance terms. But no, Musk didn’t “found” DOGE, and the gathering wasn’t in a SpaceX building. The story is real—and juicier—once you strip out the hype.

The scene: locked phones, dark video, and a future foretold

Attendees arrived by bus. Phones were confiscated. Then, on a giant screen, Elon Musk appeared—lit from a near‑pitch‑black location—and told a room of roughly 150 current and former DOGE staffers and their families that he didn’t attend in person because he considers himself a top assassination target.

From that eerie setup came his headline claim: the United States, he said, was entering a “great 12‑year span”—Donald Trump’s second term, immediately followed by two J.D. Vance presidencies.

That much checks out. It was a private DOGE “reunion” held November 22, 2025, in the Bastrop, Texas complex where Musk’s companies operate. Politico first reported the gathering; several outlets confirmed key details, including the security measures and Musk’s remarks. Sources: Politico, Fox Business, Yahoo (Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/02/elon-musk-predicts-12-years-of-trump-vance-vance-00673616?utm_source=openai | Fox Business: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/musk-predicts-2-vance-terms-succeed-trump-doge-reunion?utm_source=openai)

What we verified

• The reunion happened, and Musk spoke by video. Politico reported it; details were echoed by other outlets. (Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/02/elon-musk-predicts-12-years-of-trump-vance-vance-00673616?utm_source=openai)
• Phones were secured; attendees were bused; Musk cited assassination concerns. These specifics match the Politico account as relayed elsewhere. (Fox Business: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/musk-predicts-2-vance-terms-succeed-trump-doge-reunion?utm_source=openai)
• Who was there. Roughly 150 people, including current and former DOGE staff and some family members. (Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/02/elon-musk-predicts-12-years-of-trump-vance-vance-00673616?utm_source=openai)
• Where it was. In Bastrop, at a Musk‑owned site tied to his companies. Some outlets pointed specifically to the Boring Company’s “Boring Bodega,” not a SpaceX building. (Politico: same link; Yahoo via Politico reporting)
• The “12‑year” forecast. Musk talked about Trump now, then two terms for J.D. Vance. (Politico: same link)
• Vance as 2028 favorite. He’s vice president and favored on betting markets. (Wikipedia overview citing Polymarket ranges: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JD_Vance?utm_source=openai)
• Rubio’s view. Marco Rubio has privately said Vance is the frontrunner for 2028, per Politico. (Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/29/jd-vance-marco-rubio-2028-00627286?utm_source=openai)
• Musk’s money. He was among Trump’s biggest 2024 donors, giving hundreds of millions to pro‑Trump super PACs; analyses put the total near $280–$288 million. (Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/31/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election/?utm_source=openai)
• The split and the make‑up. Musk and Trump clashed in June 2025—amid the “Big Beautiful Bill” fight and after Trump withdrew Jared Isaacman’s NASA nomination—then reconciled by fall. Isaacman was re‑nominated in November and faces the Senate again in December. (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-bill-nasa-ev.html?utm_source=openai; Reuters on the November dinner: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-attends-trumps-dinner-with-saudi-crown-prince-2025-11-19/?utm_source=openai)
• Public sightings. Trump and Musk were seen together at Charlie Kirk’s September 21 memorial in Arizona; Musk later attended a black‑tie White House dinner honoring Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November. (AP on the memorial: https://apnews.com/article/b5469086954908b162f464da966cf238?utm_source=openai; Reuters on the dinner: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-attends-trumps-dinner-with-saudi-crown-prince-2025-11-19/?utm_source=openai)

What the original article got wrong or overstated

• “DOGE founder” is inaccurate. DOGE—the Department of Government Efficiency—was created by President Trump via executive action. Musk was tapped to lead it, but he didn’t found a federal entity. (Guardian overview: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/11/trump-doge-executive-order-musk?utm_source=openai)
• It wasn’t a “SpaceX building.” Reporting points to a Boring Company venue within the same Bastrop complex where SpaceX also operates. Calling it a SpaceX site is imprecise. (Politico: link above)
• “Staffers installed by Musk across federal agencies” overreaches. DOGE teams did operate inside agencies with unusual access, but staffing and access flowed from the administration’s authority, not from Musk personally “installing” personnel. (Guardian: link above; Washington Post context: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/06/02/doge-vowed-make-government-more-efficient-its-doing-opposite/?utm_source=openai)
• “State dinner” label needs nuance. Some outlets used that phrasing, others called it a White House black‑tie dinner honoring MBS. Musk’s attendance is not disputed; the formal label varies. (People: https://people.com/elon-musk-returns-white-house-for-controversial-state-dinner-with-saudi-crown-prince-trump-11852390?utm_source=openai; Reuters: link above)
• “Off‑grid fortress” is dramatic. The location is a secure industrial facility in Bastrop. There’s no evidence it’s literally off‑grid or a “fortress,” beyond tight event security.

The most striking detail

• Musk’s own security calculus. He told attendees he skipped the event because he sees himself as a top assassination target—after Trump and Vance. That ranking is his claim; there’s no independent verification. (Politico via Fox Business: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/musk-predicts-2-vance-terms-succeed-trump-doge-reunion?utm_source=openai)

Why this matters

• A network with reach. DOGE’s footprint across federal agencies has been significant—and controversial—making a large “reunion” plausible and politically meaningful. (Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/06/02/doge-vowed-make-government-more-efficient-its-doing-opposite/?utm_source=openai)
• Signals for 2028. Musk’s donation history and public praise matter. Calling two Vance terms now doesn’t make it true—but it does tell you where Musk’s influence, money, and media firepower may point next.
• A repaired alliance. From a June rupture to a fall reconciliation, the Musk‑Trump relationship appears back on track, capped by Isaacman’s renomination—key to NASA work tied to SpaceX. (CNBC: link above; Reuters: link above)

What remains uncertain

• Will Musk fund Vance in 2028? He hasn’t announced any 2028 commitments. Prediction is not proof.
• What else was discussed in Bastrop? The event was closed‑door with strict device controls. We’re relying on multiple attendees’ accounts reported by established outlets.
• Exact venue specifics. While reporting points to the Boring Co. “Boring Bodega,” official confirmation of the specific building hasn’t been published.

Our reporting process

We cross‑checked Politico’s scoop with follow‑up coverage on security measures and attendance, verified the venue details against descriptions of the Bastrop complex, traced the mid‑year Musk–Trump split through major outlets, confirmed public sightings in September and November, and reviewed FEC analyses of Musk’s 2024 giving. Where the original piece leaned on dramatic language, we tested those phrases against the record and flagged what held up—and what didn’t.

Bottom line

• True: A tightly controlled DOGE reunion in Bastrop on Nov. 22; Musk spoke by video; he predicted Trump now and two Vance terms next; attendees surrendered phones and rode buses. (Politico: link above)
• Needs correction: Musk didn’t “found” DOGE; the venue was likely a Boring Company site, not a SpaceX building; claims about Musk “installing” staff overstate his formal role; the “state dinner” label varies by outlet. (Guardian, Politico, Reuters links above)
• Context: Musk was a massive 2024 donor, had a mid‑2025 rift with Trump, then reconciled in the fall; Isaacman was re‑nominated to lead NASA. Vance is the 2028 GOP frontrunner in betting markets, and even Rubio reportedly says so. (Washington Post, CNBC, Politico links above)

In other words: the summit was real, the prophecy was made, and the power dynamics are shifting—but some of the flashier labels in the original story don’t survive contact with the facts.