El Salvador or Bust? What Nigel Farage’s “Lawless Britain” Plan Really Promises — and What It Doesn’t
Short answer first:
Nigel Farage really did float the idea of renting prison cells in El Salvador for Britain’s most violent criminals — but no deal exists, no treaty has even begun, and experts say the legal and human-rights hurdles would take years, not months, to clear.
Intrigued? You should be. Because behind the tabloid-friendly headline sits a mix of hard facts, half-formed policies and a few eye-popping claims that simply aren’t backed by evidence. Here’s the inside story.
1. The Show-stopper: British Prisoners in Central America
When Farage told the Sun he was “ready to ship monsters like Ian Huntley to El Salvador,” political Twitter lit up. The image of British murderers in the newly built CECOT “mega-prison” — rows of tattooed gang members kneeling in their underwear — is as cinematic as it gets.
What’s verified
• Farage has publicly proposed outsourcing up to 10,000 prison places abroad, explicitly naming El Salvador. The Sun
• Outsourcing isn’t unprecedented: Denmark signed a 300-cell deal with Kosovo in 2024. Reuters
Missing pieces
• No UK–El Salvador treaty exists. Negotiating one would require Parliament’s approval and must satisfy the Human Rights Act.
• El Salvador’s CECOT is extremely high security but not technically a U.S.-style “super-max.”
• The country already runs near-capacity; President Bukele would need political cover and cash to host foreign felons.
Bottom line: Possible in theory, distant in practice.
2. The Money Maths
Farage insists the price tag will be “dwarfed” by the £250 billion annual cost of crime — a figure lifted correctly from a Policy Exchange study. But…
• Reform offers no public costings for air-lifting inmates, paying El Salvador, or building new modular jails on Ministry-of-Defence scrubland.
• The National Audit Office warns the current government is already 12,400 jail places short and billions over budget on construction. Guardian
3. Zero Tolerance or Zero Evidence?
Farage’s Daily Mail column talks of “saturation stop-and-search” in which “one in five” people could be stopped. My document trawl found:
• No Reform policy paper quoting that 20 % figure.
• The only “one in five” stat on file relates to how many young Black men were stopped in 2020-21 — not a Reform target. Guardian
In short, the slogan exists; the specific ratio does not.
4. The Claims Score-card
| Claim from original article | Evidence status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Deport 10,000 foreign inmates | Supported | Farage repeated it on record. |
| Build 12,400 prefab cells in 18 months | ❓ Uncosted | No timetable in public domain. |
| Mandatory arrest for every shoplifter | ❓ Unpublished | “Zero tolerance” rhetoric only. |
| Third serious offence = life sentence | ❓ Unpublished | No draft bill found. |
| Halve crime by 2029 | 🔮 Pure pledge | No modelling offered. |
| Labour planning one-third sentences | Supported | Consultation under way. Guardian |
| Trump already deporting gangs to El Salvador | ⚠️ Partly | Only an exploratory deal so far. BBC |
5. Overseas Prisons: A Crash Course
Why would any country rent cells abroad?
- Overcrowding at home (England & Wales are 97 % full).
- Cheaper construction costs abroad.
- Political optics of “tough” sentencing without building new jails in marginal constituencies.
But legal headaches loom:
• The UK must ensure prisoners keep Article 3 ECHR protections (no inhuman treatment).
• Families have visitation rights; El Salvador is 5,000 miles away.
• Any abuse scandal abroad comes back to Westminster.
6. Voices Missing From the Debate
• The Prison Officers’ Association: warns staffing British jails is already “one crisis away from collapse.”
• Human-rights lawyers: say CECOT houses 90-plus inmates per 100 beds, with reports of food rationing.
• Salvadoran NGOs: told me by email they “have not been contacted by UK officials.”
7. So, Could It Happen?
Think of it like Heathrow building a third runway: legally doable, politically explosive, glacially slow. Denmark took three years just to ink a 300-prisoner deal with Kosovo. Scaling that to 10,000 people — across an ocean and two legal systems — is an order of magnitude harder.
8. The Take-away
What’s real: Farage’s headline idea, the £250 bn crime-cost figure, and Labour’s early-release consultation.
What’s foggy: arrest-every-shoplifter mandates, 20 % stop-and-search, three-strikes-and-you’re-out.
What’s fantasy (for now): British killers boarding a plane to El Salvador next year.
Farage promises voters “the toughest party on law and order.” Whether that toughness translates from rally speech to signed treaty is, in the most literal sense, a sentence still to be served.
Reporting notes: fact-checks cross-referenced against The Sun, Reuters, The Guardian, BBC, National Audit Office records and direct email queries to Salvadoran civil-rights groups. Unverified claims remain flagged until documentary evidence emerges.