War games are real. World War 3 headlines are overcooked. Yes: Russia’s bombers are flying and its big Zapad‑2025 drills are underway, and a new Belarus base looks built for serious hardware. But several of the most dramatic claims—like a UN “warning” of World War 3 and a “Doomsday nuke” that could hit London in eight minutes—don’t stand up to scrutiny. The truth is tense and dangerous enough without the hype.
Headline: War Games, Hype, and a New Base: What’s Real—and What Isn’t—in the ‘World War 3’ Buzz
The most important correction first
- The line “we are staring into the abyss of a Third World War” did not come from the UN Security Council as a formal warning. It was a quote from Ukraine’s envoy, Andrii Melnyk, speaking at the Council. Powerful words—yes. An official UN Council pronouncement—no. Source: press briefing and UN records press.un.org.
What is actually happening right now
- Russia and Belarus launched Zapad‑2025 on Sept 12–16, a five‑day exercise stretching across Russia, Belarus and into the Baltic/Barents/Arctic. This is real, large‑scale, and pointed straight at NATO’s front yard. reuters.com | tass.com
- Russian Tu‑22M3 long‑range bombers ran simulated strike missions aimed at “disrupting control systems and destroying critical facilities,” according to state reporting during the drills. This language is accurate and chilling—because it’s exactly how you’d practice to break an opponent’s command and infrastructure in a war. reuters.com | en.iz.ru
- In Poland, air defenses shot down suspected Russian drones in a Sept 9–10 incursion—the first confirmed shoot‑downs on NATO territory since 2022. Some European officials and outlets allege the drones’ track suggested a target near the Rzeszów‑Jasionka logistics hub that feeds Ukraine; Russia denies it. Allegation, not a NATO‑verified finding. reuters.com
A “secret” Belarus base—what we can see from space
- This part is mostly true—with key fixes. Independent investigators using satellite images identified a new strategic‑type complex near Paulauka (also rendered Pavlovka)—about 60 km south of Minsk, not “a few kilometres.” The facility spans over 2 km² (roughly 280 football fields) and shows around 13 hardened bunkers and large hangars. rferl.org
- Could it host “Oreshnik”? Likely. Putin said in August the nuclear‑capable Oreshnik intermediate‑range missile had entered service, with plans to deploy it in Belarus by late 2025. Western experts suspect it’s related to the RS‑26 Rubezh. Still, beware the hype: “super‑weapon” talk is PR gloss. apnews.com
- About that “eight minutes to London”: No credible outlet confirms a precise time‑to‑target for Oreshnik from Belarus. Range plausibly puts the UK in reach; the stopwatch claim does not have solid sourcing. Treat it as tabloid theater. apnews.com
Arctic missiles: launches or just warnings?
- Reports said Bastion coastal systems on Franz Josef Land “launched Onyx missiles.” What we can verify: Russian forces landed there for Zapad‑2025, and authorities issued “missile shooting” notices in the area. What we cannot yet verify: that Oniks/Onyx were actually fired during these drills. That specific claim appears in tabloids without confirmation from major outlets. rcinet.ca
- One source of confusion: a NOTAM window around Franz Josef Land lasted four days, while Zapad‑2025 itself runs five (Sept 12–16). The exercise didn’t “last four days”; a missile‑hazard window did. tass.com
Past breaches that set the stage
- Poland has publicly confirmed earlier Russian cruise‑missile intrusions into its airspace (Dec 29, 2023 and Mar 24, 2024), tracked by radar and then exiting. Those incidents—plus this month’s drones—explain Warsaw’s hair‑trigger posture now. dw.com
What’s confirmed, what’s questionable, what we don’t know
- Confirmed
- Zapad‑2025 is running Sept 12–16 across Russia/Belarus/Arctic areas. reuters.com
- Tu‑22M3 long‑range bombers conducted simulated strikes to disrupt command and hit critical targets. en.iz.ru
- Poland shot down suspected Russian drones; motives and targets are disputed. reuters.com
- A large new base near Paulauka, Belarus, exists, with ~13 bunkers in an area ≳2 km². rferl.org
- Plans to deploy nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles to Belarus by end‑2025. apnews.com
- Misleading or exaggerated
- “UN Security Council warned of World War 3.” Correction: It was Ukraine’s envoy speaking at the Council. press.un.org
- “Zapad‑2025 lasted four days.” Correction: five‑day exercise; a four‑day Arctic hazard window likely caused confusion. tass.com
- “Base just a few kilometres south of Minsk.” Correction: roughly 60 km. rferl.org
- “Doomsday nuke, eight minutes to London.” No reliable confirmation of an exact flight time. apnews.com
- Unverified/needs more reporting
- Oniks missile launches from Franz Josef Land during Zapad‑2025 (warnings and landings noted; launches not confirmed by major outlets). rcinet.ca
How we checked
- Cross‑referenced government and wire reports for dates and scope of exercises: Reuters, TASS
- Verified bomber activity through Russian state reporting and wording used in drills: Izvestia (English)
- Tracked the Poland drone incident via NATO‑aligned and global outlets: Reuters
- Reviewed independent satellite analysis of the Belarus base: RFE/RL Schemes
- Checked Oreshnik’s status and expert caution on capabilities: AP News
- Assessed Arctic missile claims against regional reporting: Eye on the Arctic/RCI
- Put Poland’s posture in context with previous intrusions: DW
What it all means
- The drills are designed to signal—and practice—how to break NATO’s systems in a crisis. The new Belarus base and the promised Oreshnik deployment add real depth to Russia’s posture on NATO’s border.
- But the most sensational pieces of the story—an official UN “World War 3” warning, guaranteed Arctic missile launches, and stopwatch‑precision doomsday timelines—don’t hold up.
Bottom line: The risk of miscalculation is rising, especially with drones and missiles rubbing up against NATO’s borders. We’re not at the brink of World War 3 today—but the combination of real war games, new bases, and nuclear‑capable deployments is exactly how brinkmanship becomes a habit. Facts, not fear, are the better guide.