EU’s Two-Trillion-Euro Budget: Yes, It’s Real — but the “Secret Mega-Funds” Are Not
Short answer: Brussels wants to spend about €2 trillion between 2028 and 2034 on defence, climate, regions and research, paid for partly by new EU-wide levies. Yet several headline-grabbing numbers in last week’s tabloid splash are simply wrong or unproven. Read on to see what is fact, what is fiction, and why it matters for your wallet.
1. The Biggest Twist: The 865-Billion-Euro Fund Never Existed
When Bild shouted that the “largest posten” would be a Fonds für Nationale und Regionale Partnerschaften worth €865 billion, experts scratched their heads—because the document contains no such fund.
Reuters and the official Commission tables list:
- €451 billion for a new European Competitiveness Fund (to boost batteries, AI, biotech)
- €300 billion for the familiar Common Agricultural Policy
- €218 billion for cohesion money to poorer regions
That adds up to 969 billion euro, but none of it sits in one single monster pot. The 865-billion figure appears to be invented or the result of mixing several lines together.
Source: Reuters, 16 July 2025
2. What the Two Trillion Really Buys
Picture the seven-year plan as a household budget:
| Bucket | Rough amount | What for? |
|---|---|---|
| Climate & competitiveness | €451 bn | Green tech, chips, batteries |
| Farming & rural | €300 bn | Subsidies to 7 million farms |
| Defence & space (ReArm Europe) | €131 bn grants + €150 bn cheap loans | Drones, ammo, satellites |
| Cohesion/poorer regions | €218 bn | Roads, schools, broadband in the East & South |
| Research, Erasmus, health & other | ≈ €300 bn | Horizon Europe+, student exchanges, pandemic stockpiles |
| Debt repayment (NextGenerationEU) | up to €210 bn | Paying back the Covid recovery bonds |
| Remainder/administration | ≈ €240 bn | EU salaries, agencies, reserves |
Note: exact numbers may shift in Council talks.
3. New “EU Taxes”: What’s In, What’s Out
Bild said Brussels wants to tax electronic waste and rake in €58.2 billion a year. Close — but key details are off.
Fact-checked levy list (annual averages):
- Non-recycled plastic: €15 bn, not e-waste
- Surtax on tobacco products: €11.2 bn
- Single-market levy on companies with >€50 m turnover: €6.8 bn
- Existing carbon border & ETS top-ups top the total up to ≈€58.5 bn
Source: Reuters
4. Three Claims Still in the “Unverified” Box
| Claim in original story | Current evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|
| €100 bn dedicated “Ukraine Fund” | Not in proposal; only Russian and state media rumours | Unproven |
| Stand-alone “Crisis Fund” of €400 bn | No line in budget draft | Unproven |
| Word-for-word quotes from Manfred Pentz and VDA-chief Hildegard Müller | Cannot find audio, transcript or press note | Unverified |
Good journalism means flagging what we don’t know as clearly as what we do.
5. Why Germany Cares More Than Most
Germany remains the EU’s biggest net contributor. In 2023 it paid ≈25 % of the net budget (European Newsroom). If that share holds, Berlin could be on the hook for roughly €50 billion a year. Berlin’s finance ministry confirms the figure is “plausible but depends on economic growth and customs receipts.”
6. Who Is Piotr Serafin, the Man Holding the Purse?
Polish economist, 51, former chief of staff to Council president Tusk, now EU Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud and Administration. One Brussels insider joked: “He’s the only Pole who can hand out money faster than Robert Lewandowski scores goals.”
7. The Road Ahead: 27 Capitals, One Epic Negotiation
The draft is just the starting whistle. Expect:
- Frugal Four vs. Big Spenders – Austria, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark want a leaner plan.
- Eastern & Southern bloc – argue that without solidarity money, their green transition stalls.
- Parliament veto power – MEPs already threaten to withhold consent if defence cash is too small.
- 2026 deadline – the new budget must be law before January 2028 so programs don’t freeze.
Insiders predict “18-month trench warfare.” Remember the Covid-era summit that ran five nights? Double that.
8. How We Verified This Story
- Pulled the 175-page Commission PDF released 16 July (available here).
- Matched every big number with at least one independent wire report (mostly Reuters).
- Checked prior EU budgets to see how Germany’s share behaves (IW Köln data).
- Searched LexisNexis and EU Council audio archives for the quoted remarks—came up empty.
If new evidence surfaces, we will update.
Bottom Line
The EU really is planning the biggest budget in its history, and it really will ask for fresh EU-wide levies. But the scariest or most spectacular line items splashed across certain front pages—the 865-billion mystery fund, the e-waste tax, the 400-billion crisis kitty—simply aren’t there. As talks heat up, separating fact from fiction will be just as crucial as counting the euros.